ENSO Impacts of global agriculture economy

    ENSO, known as El Nino Southern Oscillation, is a constant climate cycle over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The process is spilt up into three sections, including neutral, El Nino, and La Nina. ENSO has global impacts on weather affecting agriculture and can take about five years to cycle through. This blog post will give a brief explanation of how ENSO works and La Nina’s economic impacts on agriculture.

    To begin, ENSO works because the sun warms Pacific waters around the Equator. ENSO is known as oscillation because the Trade Winds cause warm water to move east to the eastern Pacific, displacing a cold-water body east to the Western Pacific. The movement of warm and cold-water bodies impacts the surrounding atmosphere, affecting global weather patterns. For example, when the Trade Winds are strong, they move warm water west over to Asia and Australia. The water warms the atmosphere creating moisture in the air and steady rains for Asia and Australia; this phenomenon is known as El Nino. As warm water moves west, it displaces cold water, forcing it to move east to the Americas. The cold water brings dry air to the Americas, causing drought; this is known as La Nina. These cycles are continually happening; it can take up to four to five years to go through an El Nino and La Nina phase and back. This weather phenomenon has incredible impacts on agriculture and the global economy.

    At the moment, the Americas are currently seeing La Nina weather conditions. La Nina will bring dry cold air from the Pacific Ocean across all the Americas. Dry conditions can cripple cash crops' production, including soybean, corn, wheat, coffee, and sugar. The droughts can lead to crop shortages impacting the global economies. For example, Argentina and Brazil are major global soybean exporters. China is a significant soybean importer. They are trying to build their hog population back up, devastated by the swine flu with soybean feed. During the last La Nina of 2018, Argentina saw a 30% less soybean output, causing prices to rise by at least 20%.

    Argentina will also face a big hit with the production of corn. Argentina is the world's 3rd largest corn producer. Estimates indicate that Argentina will produce 47 million tons of corn in 2021 compared to 50 million tons in previous years. Brazil will also have smaller corn yields, thus increasing the US's dependence to export both corn and soybean. The shortage can lead to acreage disputes between corn and soy in the US. On the other hand, La Nina brings fine weather to South Africa. During the La Nina of 2018, South Africa had record corn yields. They did not import any corn and were Africans #1 corn exporter.

    Some parts of Brazil, including Sao Paulo, are seeing record droughts. Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer. During the last La Nina event of 2010-2012, sugar prices skyrocketed and had been the highest in over thirty years. Brazil also produces 40% of the world's coffee. Drought and heavy rainfall will also negatively impact coffee output.

    In all, ENSO and particularly La Nina will have drastic impacts on the global agricultural market. South American countries like Argentina, Brazil will see a lower output in soybean, corn, sugar, and coffee. Lower exports of these crops will put more pressure on the US to make up for soybean and corn yields, although the US will likely see dryer conditions and shortages. Shortages in these crops are likely to cause increased global prices. ENSO has differing impacts on global weather. While some regions face drought, others can see warmer weather and increased rains. For example, Australia will have the opportunity to make up for wheat production lost in the Americas due to good weather. Scientists have yet to discover the duration or the intensity of this La Nina cycle. 

References 

Intelligence, G. (Director). (2020, October 29). How Will La Niña Affect Global Agricultural Markets? [Video file]. Retrieved November 20, 2020, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4hY84eMy4M

Tan, H. (2020, September 10). Soybean futures have been surging on Chinese demand, trade group CEO says buying could continue. Retrieved November 20, 2020, from https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/soybeans-have-been-surging-on-chinese-demand-and-purchases-could-continue.html